Primary deficit projected for 2026 drops to R$ 52 billion with the inclusion of court-ordered debts (precatórios)

The Bimonthly Revenue and Expenditure Evaluation Report, released this Friday (24) and forwarded to the National Congress, indicated that the primary deficit forecast for 2026, considering court-ordered debts (precatórios), stood at R$ 52 billion, below the previous estimate of R$ 60.3 billion.

The reduction is mainly due to the drop in mandatory expenses, which include healthcare, wage bonuses, and unemployment insurance, in addition to adjustments in personnel spending and social security benefits.

When court-ordered debts and other exceptions provided for in the fiscal framework are excluded, the government projects a primary surplus of R$ 10.8 billion, which enabled the unfreezing of previously contingent resources.

As a result, the Ministry of Finance and Planning released R$ 5.7 billion from the Budget, reducing the total blocked amount from R$ 23.7 billion to R$ 17.9 billion.

The report also indicates an increase of R$ 12.3 billion in net revenues, driven mainly by the upward revision of Income Tax collection, influenced by post-Middle East conflict inflation.

On the expenditure side, there was an increase of R$ 4 billion, composed of R$ 6.9 billion in discretionary spending (of which R$ 5.7 billion corresponds to unfreezing) and reductions in various mandatory categories, such as personnel and social charges (-R$ 4.2 bi), social security benefits (-R$ 3.2 bi), and BPC (-R$ 3.2 bi), partially offset by increases in healthcare (+R$ 3.4 bi) and wage bonus/unemployment insurance (+R$ 1.6 bi).

Revenues administered by the Federal Revenue showed significant increases, such as IR (+R$ 12.7 bi), Cofins (+R$ 5.6 bi), CSLL (+R$ 4.8 bi), and IPI (+R$ 4.4 bi), while transfers to states and municipalities will rise by R$ 7 bi, resulting in a net increase of R$ 12.3 bi in revenues.

Finally, revenues not administered by the Federal Revenue were reduced by R$ 4.3 bi, reflecting a drop in oil royalties and other sources, adjusting the overall outlook of public accounts for the year.