On Wednesday (29), the dollar ended the session on a downward trend, closing at R$5.10, after the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep the interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. The decision, considered dovish by Chairman Kevin Warsh, was accompanied by an internal debate in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where nine members voted to maintain the rate and three pushed for a 0.25 percentage point hike.
The market interpreted the Fed's speech as less aggressive, resulting in an appreciation of the Brazilian real and global losses for the dollar. The interest rate differential between Brazil and the United States favored carry trade operations, contributing to the decline of the American currency.
While the exchange rate benefited, the Brazilian stock market recorded a 1.52% drop in the Ibovespa index, with banks being the main drivers of the deviation. Petrobras, however, managed to mitigate part of the losses, with its common shares rising 2.35% and preferred shares 1.92%, boosted by the rise in oil prices.
Oil prices surged by around 7%, with Brent closing at US$ 88.09 per barrel (+7.32%) and WTI at US$ 84.46 (+6.56%). The rise was driven by worsening tensions between the United States and Iran, statements by Donald Trump regarding a possible military response, and an unexpected drop in weekly U.S. oil inventories.
On the international front, New York's S&P 500 closed down 1.55%, reflecting investor caution in the face of the prospect of future interest rate hikes in the United States. Despite uncertainties, the market continues to price in an interest rate hike at the September meeting.
The global scenario, marked by geopolitical tensions and volatility in oil prices, continues to influence Brazilian markets, which are closely watching the Fed's decisions and exchange rate movements.
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