The National Institute of Meteorology indicates that the El Niño phenomenon may manifest in a moderate to strong form starting in the second half of 2026, favoring the multiplication of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the vector for dengue and chikungunya.
Given this scenario, the Ministry of Health issued a technical note alerting states and municipalities about the possible increase in arboviruses and recommended the intensification of surveillance and control actions.
According to projections from InfoDengue/Fiocruz, the country could record about 1.7 million dengue cases in 2027 if weather conditions favor the proliferation of the vector.
Rising temperatures and increased rainfall in certain regions stimulate water accumulation, creating environments conducive to the reproduction of the transmitting mosquito.
The agency advises that states and municipalities block transmission immediately after identifying the first cases, restructure the activities of endemic disease control agents, and adopt vector control technologies indicated by the ministry.
The population is also called upon to eliminate potential breeding sites in homes and to be attentive to symptoms of the diseases, such as high fever, pain behind the eyes, and joint pain.
Despite the alert, official data show a drop in notifications this year: up to June 20, 2026, 392,800 dengue cases were recorded, a 73% reduction compared to the same period in 2025, while chikungunya cases fell by 46%.
The Ministry emphasizes that the projections are epidemiological estimates and may be revised as new data are incorporated into the forecasting models.
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