Extreme rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024, caused by the overlap of weather events, including El Niño Renan Mattos/REUTERS via DW A new El Niño episode is already showing signs in the Pacific and could bring more rain to the South and drought to the North and Northeast. There are still doubts about the phenomenon's intensity, amid the country's lack of preparedness and adaptation.
From above, satellites and radars monitor the warmer body of water moving across the Pacific Ocean toward the South American coast. This monitoring, reinforced by buoys at sea, indicates a pattern already familiar to researchers: another El Niño is forming. The main uncertainty now is about its intensity. "The term 'super El Niño' is not entirely appropriate," states Tércio Ambrizzi, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of São Paulo (USP).
"The tendency is for it to be moderate to strong," he comments regarding a certain consensus in the scientific community. The phenomenon is usually identified when the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean in the equatorial region is about 0.5 °C above normal for a prolonged period, generally at least three months. Since February, measurements have pointed to this elevation in the region. Now on g1 Scientists are still awaiting confirmation of where the greatest warming in the ocean will occur.
This factor will be decisive in defining how the impacts will be felt in Brazil. "Comparing it with others from the past, it is possible that the first signs of this El Niño should appear in southern Brazil during the spring, with more rain," states José Marengo, general coordinator for Research and Development at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 90% probability that El Niño will occur again this year. It could be of strong intensity, which tends to worsen both droughts and heavy rains, in addition to increasing the risk of heatwaves on land and in the ocean. "El Niño conditions will throw more fuel on the fire of a warming world, and its impact will be even more severe, will reach further, and will cross borders with devastating speed," warned the United Nations scientific body last Tuesday (02). Between late April and mid-May, the sea surface temperature in the Pacific area used as a reference was already approaching typical El Niño levels.
This scenario was reinforced by subsurface temperatures more than 6 ºC above average. It is never the same as another The possible emergence of a strong-intensity El Niño has sparked debates across the country. In the National Congress, sessions are discussing whether its impacts could harm the population, the economy, and agribusiness. The next grain harvest, for example, is estimated at 356 million tonnes, representing a 1.2% increase compared to the previous harvest. To DW, the National Civil Defense, linked to the Ministry of Regional Development, informed that it monitors weather conditions daily in coordination with states, municipalities, and institutions such as Cemaden and the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet). Conditions generated by El Niño can facilitate wildfires and impact agricultural production Michael Dantas/AFP via DW "There is still no precise prognosis regarding the impacts of the phenomenon.
Therefore, action is focused on constant monitoring and early preparation so that, if critical situations are forecasted, alerts and necessary measures are adopted in a timely manner," the agency replied in a note. If the phenomenon is confirmed, an aggravation of the drought is expected during the winter and early summer in some regions, such as the North – especially in the Amazon – and part of the Northeast. These conditions can favor wildfires and affect agricultural production. In the South, an increase in rainfall is forecasted. "Each El Niño has its own fingerprint. It is never the same as another," says Ambrizzi.
The most recent El Niño episode occurred between 2023 and 2024 and was one of the five most intense on record, which influenced the occurrence of record global temperatures. The outskirts of Porto Alegre were heavily hit by the 2024 events Gustavo Basso/DW The memory of the destruction caused by extreme rains in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024 is still fresh. That year, a combination of weather events, including an intense El Niño, triggered the worst flood in the state's history. "Governments and authorities in general seem more concerned.
But that alone is not enough. Even if El Niño is not intense, the atmosphere is already warmer, global warming already exists, which should already be causing changes in a more systematic way," points out Marengo.
Absence or low preparedness In vulnerable communities, there is a perception that public investments for adaptation and coping with extreme rains or droughts intensified by El Niño were lacking. "The peripheries of cities already suffer from accumulated impacts from various disasters.
We have almost nothing ready to adapt our communities to this scenario," says Thaynah Gutierrez, executive secretary of the Anti-Racist Adaptation Network, citing the peripheries of Porto Alegre, which was heavily hit by the 2024 events. For risk management experts, preparation for extreme weather events should not depend on the confirmation of a specific phenomenon. It should be part of an ongoing planning agenda. Although there has been progress in awareness within public agencies, the private sector, and civil society, the debate still tends to focus on what exactly will happen: whether there will be drought, heavy rains, or floods. The focus, however, should be on building a permanent capacity for adaptation. "More than reacting to each new alert, regardless of the occurrence of a specific event, territories must be prepared.
The focus needs to be on the resilience of cities, infrastructure, and productive systems," suggests Victor Marchezini, a sociologist at Cemaden and coordinator of the project Organizational Capacities for Preparation for Extreme Events supported by the São Paulo Research Foundation (Fapesp). Dangerous alarmism Another challenge lies in risk communication. With the multiplication of meteorological analyses on social media – often produced by private consultancies and influencers with different interests – the population is exposed to conflicting information. "This excess of messages can generate doubts about which forecasts are most reliable and which concrete measures should be adopted," the sociologist criticizes. With a degree in public administration, Gutierrez follows the alarmism generated by the forecasts, but states that the majority of the population does not access this type of content – except through videos that go viral on the internet.
"Overall, governments and institutions lack situated knowledge of which territories are most vulnerable. We want to talk about this responsibly and hold governments accountable so they prioritize these territories in preparation," she argues. The responsibility of demanding investments and accountability must be part of all spheres of government, as well as planning, adds Marchezini. "This would allow, for example, the early execution of bidding processes and contracts for disaster response, reducing the need for emergency measures and extraordinary expenses when crises are already underway," he comments. In view of the forecasts, Santa Catarina, for example, has decreed a state of climate alert, valid until November.
At the same time, the state government has practically paralyzed investments in disaster prevention, according to data from the Integrated Planning and Fiscal Management System (Sigef-SC), released by the state's Legislative Assembly. In 2025, only 15.4% of the resources forecasted in the Protection and Civil Defense Secretariat's budget were executed. The volume allocated for the construction, expansion, and renovation of dams was even lower: only 0.66% of the total was committed. "It is worth remembering that we are in an election year.
We cannot continue electing these politicians who will use the resources that should go toward preparation and adaptation to extreme events for misappropriation," Gutierrez comments.
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